What students analyze
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports payroll employment and the unemployment rate from different surveys. This case asks students to research both measures for a selected release month and trade across five outcomes in each market, rather than make a single up/down guess.
The moderator sets the release month before trading. Students can record the indicators and reasoning behind their estimates in time-stamped Notes, then revisit those estimates as new evidence and market prices arrive.
Market 1: Change in payroll employment
What month-over-month change in seasonally adjusted total nonfarm payroll employment will the BLS Employment Situation release for {RELEASE_MONTH} initially report?
- Less than 50 thousand
- 50 to 99 thousand
- 100 to 149 thousand
- 150 to 199 thousand
- 200 thousand or more
Settlement: Use the initially published month-over-month change in seasonally adjusted total nonfarm payroll employment, in thousands, from Table B-1. Later revisions do not count. Each boundary belongs to the range beginning at that value.
Market 2: Change in the unemployment rate
What change in the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate will the BLS Employment Situation release for {RELEASE_MONTH} initially report, relative to the preceding month shown in that same release?
- Decrease by 0.2 percentage points or more
- Decrease by 0.1 percentage point
- No change
- Increase by 0.1 percentage point
- Increase by 0.2 percentage points or more
Settlement: Subtract the preceding month’s unemployment rate from the selected month’s rate, using the one-decimal, seasonally adjusted rates first published together in Table A-1 of that release. The change is measured in percentage points, not percent.
Using it in class
Students can compare payroll and unemployment indicators, explain which evidence they trust and consider whether the two forecasts tell a consistent story. Their orders contribute to the class’s evolving prices. After the release, the instructor can settle both markets and compare the realized figures with the price path, trades and student notes.
Research and settlement source
The prepared case uses the BLS Employment Situation release. The PDF description provides the student-facing setup; the CSV contains the complete questions and settlement rules.