Why several outcomes? A binary question such as “Will the Fed raise rates?” may have an answer available from an existing prediction market or an AI system. Estimating a range—and assigning probabilities across several plausible outcomes—requires students to examine evidence, understand definitions and judge uncertainty. AI may assist the research, but the student remains responsible for checking whether its evidence, calculations and conclusions are correct.
Make a case of your own: open the Moderator application and choose Case → Create a new case. Enter your question and possible outcomes, add settlement rules and sources, set the trading cutoff and market settings, then save the case as a CSV to reuse or share.
To get started with an example, choose Start from a pre-specified case. You can change its questions, outcomes and rules before running it. Review the closing dates and any placeholders. The cases below come from the same catalog the Moderator application uses; PDF descriptions open separately.